PRLog (Press Release) – May 07, 2011 – The new Germany Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.56% of power generation in the developed markets by 2015, while retaining a slight electricity supply surplus after power industry usage and system losses. BMI's developed markets power generation estimate for 2010 is 7,270 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.7% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,809TWh between 2011 and 2015, representing an increase of 5.73%.
BMI estimates that thermal power generation in 2010 will have been 4,267TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 4,456TWh, implying 3.19% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.1% - in spite of environmental concerns that have led to the promotion of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Germany's thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 355TWh, or 8.33% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 8.13% of thermal generation.
Oil is the dominant fuel in Germany, accounting for 38.0% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 24.7%, gas at 24.1%, nuclear energy at 10.6% and hydro-power with a 1.4% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,027mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 5.71% growth in 2011-2015. Germany's estimated 2010 market share of 7.97% is set to rise to 8.28% by 2015. Germany's estimated 140TWh of 2010 nuclear demand is forecast to increase to 148TWh by 2015, with its share of the nuclear market in developed markets rising from 8.29% to 8.51% over the period.
BMI is now forecasting German real GDP growth of 3.00% in 2011, with the 2011-2015 average being 2.02%. Population is expected to contract from 81.6mn to 80.6mn in 2011-2015 and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to rise by6% and 9% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 517TWh in 2010 to 571TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a slight supply surplus, assuming 1.7% average annual growth in generation in 2011-2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in German electricity generation of 14.5%, which is near the bottom of the range for the developed markets. This equates to an increase of 7.5% in 2015- 2020, up from the expected growth rate of 6.5% in 2011-2015. PED growth is set to fall from 8.8% in 2011-2015 to 3.5% during 2015-2020, representing 12.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 65% in hydro-power use during 2011-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to fall by 4% between 2011 and 2020, with nuclear demand falling by 24%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this re rc helicopter market place port.
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